Sunday, May 29, 2011

Can You Predict the Future?



Everywhere there is buzz - will the S&P dip below 1331?  How far below?  Will it bounce?  Summer is here, folks sell in May and stay away, or so the story goes.

So, how do you vote?  Can you predict the future?  What will happen this summer?

Share your thoughts, your fun, spooky, or otherwise wildly optimistic thoughts here and let's see what happens!!!


As for me - I will be wildly optimistic, say we drop another 50 points on the S&P, but then rally back up to hit 14,000 by October of this year!

What do you think?!

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

The Probability of Losing

Probabilities sounds like probably to me.  Probably has never cut it for me.  For example, when my husband and I asked the question of each other - do we want to be married?  Probably would not have been a good enough answer from either of us.  Another example, when I signed up for any job - I never probably wanted it.  Everything I have done has been 100% and then some, no room for probably.

In trading, there is probably, maybe, and probabilities.  There is the knowledge that I will lose, yes, lose, some percentage of the time.  The only certainty is uncertainty.  For a woman who always wanted to earn a 100 on my tests and be the best at work, losing is simply not an option. Or at least it wasn't, until now.

The psychology of losing some of the time is hard to manage.  The emotion of losing and not carrying that over to the next trade is hard to manage.  So far I have managed this emotion by simply avoiding the whole situation for the past couple of months.  This is hard work.  Being in the "now moment" and focusing just on that one trade in front of me without the cloud of other losing trades getting in the way is a skill worth mastering, and a skill that is hard to master.

How do others get past that emotion?  Share any tips you have!