Everywhere there is buzz - will the S&P dip below 1331? How far below? Will it bounce? Summer is here, folks sell in May and stay away, or so the story goes.
So, how do you vote? Can you predict the future? What will happen this summer?
Share your thoughts, your fun, spooky, or otherwise wildly optimistic thoughts here and let's see what happens!!!
As for me - I will be wildly optimistic, say we drop another 50 points on the S&P, but then rally back up to hit 14,000 by October of this year!
What do you think?!
I am trying to find the reason for an up move in the markets. If someone can figure that out I would love to hear it. My argument for a correction in the markets for the intermediate term i.e. next 3 months is as follow:
ReplyDeleteQE2 done, Inflation, Unemployment Commodities on the rise, PIGS of Europe still in trouble,
i would say probably S&P will test 1250 at least in short run, but i'm optimistic on S&P as well. I think at the year end, S&P will hit 1450. In short term, I'm buying VIX call to hedge my holding.
ReplyDeleteQE2 is done, and QE3 is unlikely to come, but FED will keep .25% interest a while, maybe until end of 2012. I don't think commodities would rise that much as they were in first half of 2011, because of recently emerging markets slowdown.
I think S&P will drop to 1250 in short term. I bought VIX call to hedge my holding. However, I think S&P will end up 1450 at the year end.
ReplyDeleteQE2 is done, and QE3 is not coming, but FED will keep interest rate low until end of 2012. I don't think commodities will rise that much as they were in the first half of 2011, because of emerging markets slowdown, demand cooling down.
As my mentor says, "Don't ask me what my opinions are, ask me what my positions are". I've learned I can't predict the markets, ever! But, on S & P futures, I am in one position to the short side, have two orders for added shorts, and one order for a long position. That's all folks! But, I always try to remember, the stock market has a bullish bias. Humans are eternal optimists!!!
ReplyDeleteShort term, this market is under pressure. 1280 to 1250 is the near term target range. Long term, show me some jobs. Bottom line, we need a significant change in unemployment, or this thing is going much lower.
ReplyDeleteConversely, as "Anonymous" said above, the stock market has a bullish bias. Humans are eternal optimists!!!
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