Wednesday, May 4, 2011

The Probability of Losing

Probabilities sounds like probably to me.  Probably has never cut it for me.  For example, when my husband and I asked the question of each other - do we want to be married?  Probably would not have been a good enough answer from either of us.  Another example, when I signed up for any job - I never probably wanted it.  Everything I have done has been 100% and then some, no room for probably.

In trading, there is probably, maybe, and probabilities.  There is the knowledge that I will lose, yes, lose, some percentage of the time.  The only certainty is uncertainty.  For a woman who always wanted to earn a 100 on my tests and be the best at work, losing is simply not an option. Or at least it wasn't, until now.

The psychology of losing some of the time is hard to manage.  The emotion of losing and not carrying that over to the next trade is hard to manage.  So far I have managed this emotion by simply avoiding the whole situation for the past couple of months.  This is hard work.  Being in the "now moment" and focusing just on that one trade in front of me without the cloud of other losing trades getting in the way is a skill worth mastering, and a skill that is hard to master.

How do others get past that emotion?  Share any tips you have!

1 comment:

  1. Good question, Meredith...

    I think, I use my fear to my advantage in this case. I am too scared to miss the next winning trade! When I look at my data (which I now have five years of - it really helps me stay focused on reality). I know my system is successful over time. So if I skip the next trade even though my system tells me I should take it, I am too scared of berating myself if it's a winner and I chose to follow my fear instead of being reality based. I guess this is an example of working with my fear instead of against it in a weird sort of way. LOL. I'll be very interested to see other people's strategy...

    And yes, the emotions are hard to manage, always...

    Best wishes, Petra

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